Comentario de MORGAN STANLEY
Seguimos optimistas con respecto a EM, pero habrá una creciente atención sobre si existe alguna estabilización de datos, dado el repunte en las últimas semanas.
Enfoque de PMI: la próxima ronda de PMI será importante para los mercados, comenzando con el lanzamiento de PMI de octubre de China a las 9 a.m. HKT del 31 de octubre. Ha habido progreso en el comercio / Brexit y tiempo suficiente para considerar sus implicaciones, por lo que en relación con los PMI flash publicados Hace un par de semanas, los próximos datos probablemente proporcionarán una mejor señal. Hasta el momento, hay algunos signos tentativos de estabilización en los PMI, y los índices de nuevos pedidos de fabricación comienzan a subir, por ejemplo, especialmente en los EM ( Anexo 1 ). Aún así, en general, no hay muchos signos de brotes verdes y, dado el repunte en EM que hemos visto en las últimas semanas, los participantes del mercado aumentarán la atención sobre si comenzamos a ver algún brote.
Nuestra opinión es que hasta el final del año somos más propensos que nunca a ver esto, y el riesgo / recompensa favorece la larga EM a la luz del posicionamiento relativamente ligero en la actualidad. La cantidad de relajamiento de los EM que hemos visto junto con las mejoras que hemos visto en torno a la tensión comercial (a pesar de estar lejos de resolverse de forma duradera) significa que deberíamos comenzar a ver cierta estabilización en los datos en los próximos meses. Al mismo tiempo, los datos de Estados Unidos siguen siendo más suaves, con la confianza de los consumidores ayer por debajo de las expectativas y el índice Capex Plans de Morgan Stanleycayendo otros 2,4 puntos en octubre, cayendo aún más por debajo de su promedio a largo plazo. Aunque obviamente no es útil para una narrativa de crecimiento global, una desaceleración gradual de los EE. UU. Es, en nuestra opinión, un resultado neto positivo para los activos de renta fija de los mercados emergentes, dado el impacto en el USD y las perspectivas de la política monetaria de los EE. UU., Que son factores dominantes que creemos en relación con la economía El apoyo que EE. UU. brinda a EM a través de la demanda agregada.
FX/RATES DAYBOOK AMERICAS: Dollar Slips Ahead of Fed Decision
(Bloomberg) — The dollar fell against most of its Group-of-10 peers and Treasuries steadied ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision due later Wednesday. The pound advanced as the U.K. prepared for a December election that could break the Brexit deadlock. European stocks inched down and emerging market currencies held near a three-month high. WHAT TO WATCH:
- U.S. GDP, ADP data
- FOMC rate decision; market forecasts a quarter point rate cut for a third straight meeting
- Bank of Canada rate decision; Governor Stephen Poloz to hold a news conference
- German inflation, Mexico GDP
OVERNIGHT TRADING SESSIONS:
- Volatility in major currencies slid to the lowest in three months as traders ahead of the Fed’s decision. JPMorgan G-7 Volatility Index fell to the lowest since July
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell for a third day
- The pound climbed after lawmakers finally backed Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s push for a snap vote on Dec. 12
- European bonds markets were steady while U.S. Treasuries edged higher
OVERNIGHT NEWS:
- Boris Johnson has succeeded, finally, in getting Parliament to give him the general election that he wants. The polls have him far ahead but his move is still a risky one — polling errors, Brexit and the U.K. voting system pose threats
- Chief Executive Officer Christian Sewing’s sweeping revamp of Deutsche Bank AG failed to arrest a slump in revenue, including in one of its areas of traditional strength: fixed income trading
- Citigroup Inc. plans to cut the number of foreign-exchange platforms it supports by two thirds, the Financial Times reported, citing people with knowledge of the matter
- France’s economy grew more than expected in the third quarter, a sign it’s avoiding some of the global manufacturing malaise that’s probably pushed Germany into a recession
VIEWS
- Heading into the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision this week, the consensus is that the central bank will cut its lending benchmark for the third time in as many meetings. But, unlike the past two, there’s belief that Chair Jerome Powell will strongly suggest a timeout on monetary easing this time around
- Standard Chartered buys the pound as the prospect of a U.K. election removes political roadblocks to a Brexit deal, while the probability of Britain leaving EU without one is approaching zero
GLOBAL
* 2pm: FOMC Rate Decision
* 8:30am: U.S. 3Q GDP PCE QoQ, est. 2.2%, prior 1.9%
* Johnson Gets to Gamble on Dec. 12 Election to Fix Brexit Crisis
* German Unemployment Resumes Rise as Economy Battles Recession
* Indonesia Starts Antidumping Probe on Malaysian, Chinese Steel
* India Mulls Plan to Add More Levies on Refined Palm Oil Imports
* Bank of Canada rate decision; Governor Stephen Poloz to hold a news conference
* France’s economy grew more than expected in the third quarter
* Mnuchin Says Nov. Partial Trade Deal to Be Important Achievement
* Putin to Skip APEC in Chile, Move Not Linked to Unrest: Kremlin
* Venezuela State Oil Company Sues in U.S. to Void 2020 Bonds
COLOMBIA
* Colombia Court Overturns Financial Sector Income Tax Surcharge
* Ecopetrol Third Quarter Net Income Misses Lowest Estimate
* Ecopetrol Bond Trading Jumps to More Than Three Times Average
Comentario de HSBC
EM currencies have benefitted from a benign external
backdrop lately…
…but our doubts remain as to how long this optimism can last
Soft EM growth, narrower yields, and less fiscal room for
some keep us guarded
We recently stress-tested our view on EM FX, outlining three conditions for us
to like a broader range of currencies than has been the case. These include the
US and China striking a deal on trade, stronger EM growth, and the potential for a
weak USD policy that is not destructive in nature. All of these conditions have come
together to a degree lately. However, we have doubts that this optimism for EM
FX can be sustained. After all, there are still a lot of uncertainties for US-China trade
talks beyond ‘Phase 1’, the EM growth outlook is likely to remain sluggish and the
respective yields have declined, fiscal risks are present for some, and FX policy could
resist local currency strength for others.