NY Open – Dancin’ in the dark
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Ahead of US data, Treasuries and dollar traded flat – with the exception of USDJPY. The BoJ underwhelmed by leaving all policy parameters unchanged, causing USDJPY to drift higher. A sudden sell-off from 156.82 to 155 caused concern, but the subsequent bounce and a comparison of interbank volumes to historical instances of intervention suggests this was not MoF driven. Nevertheless, USDJPY jitters remain. US equity futures are set to open higher with strong earnings from Microsoft and Alphabet. All eyes on core PCE data at 08:30 EDT. Fed’s own forecast is for unchanged 2.8%YoY, with economist expectations shifting up after quarterly PCE beat. Note rounding risk for the MoM number. The weekly close in UST benchmarks will be indicative for broader risk. MXN continues to be vulnerable to further losses, while ZAR sees reprieve in the newest IPSOS poll showing little change in ANC support. PEN will underperform on a credit rating downgrade from S&P, while EUR rates are on edge ahead of Moody’s and Fitch decisions for France. Other data releases include BRL IPCA-15 and MXN trade balance |
COP – Today, COP moved in-line with a soft Latam region, weakening -0.41% against the dollar so far. Our trader has seen interest to buy USDCOP from real and fast money today. Local corps have been overall mixed and a bit more active as we approach month-end. On the local side, President Petro hinted last night during a state address that he would push the lower house to modify the pension reform proposal. He noted that he would ask the house to modify the article of the bill that addresses the minimum wage to bring it back to its original higher threshold. It has been a slow week in terms of local data from Colombia, but urban unemployment will be reported tomorrow morning at 11am EST. For March, consensus expects 11.0% unemployment, moving lower from an 11.6% print in February.