NY Open – Reverberations
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In the post-CPI aftermath, USD trades weaker, USTs retrace slight gains, while US equity futures stabilize. Japan current account data hints at a smaller round of intervention, USDJPY flows overnight were mixed, the pair now at 159.17. China trade data was strong, though weak domestic demand remains a concern. SEK core CPIF prints negative and other details were soft, confirming room for more Riksbank dovishness. NOKSEK recovers losses. US PPI at 08:30 EDT is expected to rebound, though ultimately, the Fed narrative (and our base case of a Sep cut) will not change. U Mich sentiment and inflation expectations out later at 10:00. INR CPI and IP out at 08:00, alongside MXN May IP. ARS awaits national CPI (15:00). After the close Thurs, PEN saw rates unchanged, with the bank concerned about persistent core inflation. Q2 earnings season kicks off, US big banks reports are imminent. |
COP: Surprisingly balanced flows with an uptick in inflows from both HF and RM over the past couple of days, but still very far off the large unwinds seen in June, especially from CTA accounts. Long COP positioning has been much reduced and hasn’t been put back on yet, while local RM have been decent buyers of USD over the past 3 weeks
COP – COP has underperformed vs peers this session having lost -0.21%. USDCOP was mostly flows driven today, opening lower after CPI and then bouncing back fast due to the stronger JPY (after intervention) caused carry trade unwinds. On the flows front our traders have seen mostly outflows from RM, HF and corporate clients this session.
