COP – COP performed strongly today while finding 4,080 as a major resistance. Our trader thinks that we need to keep an eye on this level going into the month end, as global sentiments and flows dominates. Today, our desk saw HFs NDF inflows and RM cash inflows to fade the recent dollar strength. Tomorrow we will have August unemployment data and Banrep rate decision (Citi expects no change, in line with the market).
NY Open – Month-end mayhem |
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Risk assets performed well overnight: high-beta FX is outperforming, the broad equity complex is in the green, while global FI yields underperformed overnight, though lost momentum as the European session continued. Two factors behind the yield move – BoJ’s unscheduled JGB buying operation (first since August) and misses in France and Eurozone CPI (notably on core for the latter). USDJPY bounced off support at 148.50. Otherwise, the overarching driver of Friday’s markets has been month-end. US Core PCE is top of mind at 08:30 EDT, where our economists expects the measure to soften towards 3.8%. Watch out for shutdown headlines, as overnight developments do little to avoid a kick-off on Sunday. Elsewhere, CAD July GDP may be too backwards looking, also printing at 08:30. In EM, COP expects unchanged overnight lending rates at the Banrep meeting (14:00 EDT). CLP awaits Industrial Production and Retail Sales YoY at 08:00 EDT. |