US Election day is finally here – polling stations are now open, with the majority of swing state (including PA) closing at 20:00 EST. It was a choppy session overnight, with risk reduction likely in play. AUD is top performer after RBA stuck to hawkish guidance, G10 FX trade in tight ranges against USD otherwise. US equity futures are slightly higher, while USTs are modestly under pressure. Note that we get a 10y new issue auction today, which we expect to be weak given the closeness to elections. Markets are positioned long USD and equities (extended in latter), and short rates.
Back to US elections, NC could be the first swing state to post results from 20:00 (according to unofficial state guide), Nash county is a key bellwether. PA (holding 19 EC votes) could be pivotal, but results could be delayed until early Wed/even Thurs. Keep an eye on any early indicators e.g. Northampton and Erie. Most presidential elections, on average, have been officially called by 23:20 ET but the most notable exceptions are 2016 (called 02:29am T+1) and 2020 (T+4). Data catalysts will be overlooked – US ISM Services releases at 10:00 EST.
