OVERNIGHT NEWS
# Asia risk off, Euro Stoxx futures -0.3%. AGB yields jump after Aussie 3Q core CPI accelerates to 2.1% yoy, meets RBA target of 2%-3% for first time since 2015. Benchmark April-2024 yield advances to 0.205% against RBA target of 0.10%, AUD/USD +0.3%.
# Day ahead: Canada CB f/c to keep rates on hold and taper to C$1bn from C$2bn, Brazil CB f/c to raise rates by 100bp, UK budget.
# China: industrial profits rebound to 16.3% yoy in September from 10.1% in August, divergence widens between material/ miners/ tech/pharma and downstream manufacturers (textile and apparel) as higher input prices weigh
# Nikkei -0.01%, EUR 10y IRS unch at 0.269%, Brent crude 1.1% at $85.5/b, Gold -0.2% at $1,788/oz
Brazil: another lumpy rate increase anticipated today
USDCOP Drivers Tuesday
GLOBAL
Stock futures rise ahead of Google and Microsoft earnings. S&P 500 rises 0.39% and Dow 0.31%. Government bond yields fall, with US 10yr yield on 1.634%. Oil prices rise, WTI oil prices are rising 0.20%. In currencies, EURUSD is trading -0.05%, USDMXN -0.01%, USDBRL 0.39% and USDCOP 0.15%.
COLOMBIA
In September 2021, the Government’s foreign currency debt rose to 37.96% of the total from 37.23% in the same month of 2020. Now, if it is compared with December of last year, when it stood at 36.19%, an increase of 1.77 percentage points is observed so far in 2021. Meanwhile, the percentage of debt in local currency rose to 62.04% in September from 61.47% in August but decreased from 62.77% in the same month of 2020. Debt in dollars already represents 34.36% of the total, when a year ago the percentage was 33.53%. Obligations in euros, on the other hand, had a slight decrease in this same period, going from 3.70% to 3.60%. It must be considered that the debt in pesos between September 2020 and the same month of 2021 decreased from 45.01% to 44.15%. And the denominated in UVR went from 17.75% to 17.89%.
The Consumer Confidence Indicator, measured by the Dane, rose 1.8 points in September 2021 compared to August and reached a maximum since 2020 of 37.7 points. Last January, the indicator had been located at 31.9 points; in February, at 33.6 points; in March, at 34.4 points; in April, at 30.58 points; in May, at 27.6 points; in June, at 31.7 points; in July, by 35 points; and in August, at 35.9 points. According to the data revealed by the director of the National Administrative Department of Statistics (Dane), Juan Daniel Oviedo, corresponding to the Social Pulse Survey, in December of last year the indicator had been 33.7 points; in November, 34.4 points; in October, 34 points; in September, 33.5 points; in August, 32.5 points; and in July, 28.9 points. By gender, consumer confidence in women rose 1.3 points, from 36.1 points in the eighth month of the year to 37.4 points in the ninth. Meanwhile, in men, the indicator rose to 38.2 points.
This Friday, from 8:30 am, the tenth meeting of the BanRep Board will take place; the market, unanimously, sees a new rate hike. The meeting will be attended by the Minister of Finance, José Manuel Restrepo Abondano; the general manager of the Issuer, Leonardo Villar Gómez; and the co-directors Alberto Carrasquilla Barrera, Roberto Steiner Sampedro, Jaime Jaramillo Vallejo, Bibiana Taboada Arango and Mauricio Villamizar Villegas. As is known, the beginning of the withdrawal cycle of the monetary stimulus began at the Board meeting last month, with an increase in interest rates to 25 basic, and market analysts are expecting a further increase in the meeting on Friday, according to the monthly survey published by the central bank. While most traders expect a September-like rise of 25 basis, a good number of analysts are anticipating an upward adjustment of 50 basis. It is worth mentioning that after one in the afternoon there will be a virtual press conference.