| President-elect Trump’s nomination of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary supported risk sentiment to start the week. His fiscal hawkish stance and gradualism approach on tariffs helped USTs and EMFX outperform. EURUSD retraced back towards the 1.05 handle driven by USD weakness and relatively resilient Germany IFO. Acceleration to 50bps cuts for the Dec ECB are pared, though ultimately depends on EZ CPI later this week. Gold underperformed after geopolitical risk premium clears slightly, after headlines that an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire could happen within the next few days.
No US data today, keep an eye on ECB speakers with Lane (11:30 EST), Nagel (12:30) and Makhlouf (14:00) for any signs of urgency. We expect BoI to hold rates at 09:00. Brazil 2025 Selic and inflation forecasts rise again in the latest weekly economist survey. We keep an eye on any fiscal headlines. In Romania, far-right candidate Georgescu won the first round of presidential elections, a surprise outcome. He will likely face opposition leader Lasconi in the second round run-off (Dec 8). Overnight, SGD CPI missed, increasing risks of Jan easing. For now, our expectations remain for no changes.
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