COP – COP has seen limited flows and volatility, continuing to hover around the 4215 range. Levels to keep an eye on are 4200 to the lower bound and if broken could be seen going well into the 4100s.
US Treasuries can’t catch a proper break, with the bond rally stalling overnight amid recessionary Eurozone data and mixed flows going into events later this week. USD trades mixed, regaining losses against EUR but with no momentum elsewhere ex-ZAR. Equities are treading water going amid earnings. Eurozone PMI underlined deepening recession risks for Q4, while UK data was only marginally better. China policy headlines are set to pick up in the coming week, while THB outperformed on a bumper trade surplus print.
Markets may consolidate until a clearer path for US yields is identified. Looking ahead, US equities remain focused on earnings with in-focus tech names report after the close. More attention will be placed on the US PMI reports at 09:45 EDT after EUR weakness, though consensus expects a contraction. USTs see this week’s supply kick off with a 2y auction. Our trader is biased to be short HUF going into the NBH decision, where Citi calls for a 75bps rate cut and forecasts range 50-100bps. MXN bi-weekly CPI and BRL headlines are not too notable, while AUD markets gear up for the Q3 CPI print that will determine RBA Nov.