rader Take – USDCOP Open Sept 23
By Santiago Calvache
USDCOP traded lower on Friday following peers and risk sentiment. We saw mixed interest with HFs and Corps selling USD and RM buying USD in the dip. The market broke 4,170 on a closing basis, meaning the next resistance is 4,110. Interbank volume continued being lower than average with 690million traded vs 824 million (30 day avg).
This week we should see Corp outflows given seasonality, which should mean USDCOP trading higher. I believe that a further move lower starts being attractive to buy USD when closer to 4,100.
On the forward curve, I like to buy 2 month and 3 month area where basis is close to flat as I believe a negative basis is not sustainable for a long period of time.
Market attention locally this week should be on preparation for Banrep which is next Monday. On spot, I will be watching 4,110 as the support and 4,170 as resistance