COP – COP strengthened on the day given the rally in oil futures. Our local traders have seen outflows form Real Money names, while Corps are staying on the sideline. Tomorrow, we will have soft data releases, including February Industrial Confidence and Retail Confidence.
Probability for March 25bp hike rises above 80%; USTs bear-flatten, Yellen says, “situation is stabilizing”; European rates bear-flatten, ECB’s de Cos says ECB “stands ready”; NOK displays broad-based outperformance; March RBA Minutes spur AUD weakness; BRL lags; US 10y at 3.609% (+12.5bp).
Latin America:
Latam currencies retraced some of their recent losses, supported by an improvement in risk appetite and a relatively flat USD. MXN was the region’s best performing currency, up ~1% to consolidate ~18.65. In contrast, BRL closed relatively flat, following comments from President Lula, which questioned the need for central bank autonomy and the elevated level of the policy rate. Local headlines also noted the fiscal plan presentation will likely be delayed until April, following his visit to China. Local rates moved higher across the board, following US Treasuries. The more pronounced upward moves were across the TIIE and IBR curves, as trading re-opened after local holidays on Monday; 2y TIIE closed 11bp higher and 2y IBR closed 18bp higher.