NY Open – Choppy waters
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Risk remained on a fragile footing overnight given geopolitics, with oil prices extending higher (+3% at print), and equities soft. While mainland China remains closed on holiday, Hang Seng had a strong open and managed to close +6.2%, driven by property stocks. It’s a mixed picture in FX – JPY remains under pressure while high-betas see modest gains. EURUSD trades flat though high focus is on Schnabel, who speaks at 17:25 EDT. Like Lagarde, she may also be confident on an Oct 25bps cut – this is now Citi’s house view. USTs hold gains overnight, though expect a choppy session to persist until NFP. No data today, though a heavy Fedspeak schedule, with Hammack, Musalem, Bowman and Barkin. Barkin may be the most relevant at 12:15 EDT. In EM, BRL watches IP data, and MXN should keep an eye on the central bank economist survey. After delivering her inauguration speech Tuesday, President Sheinbaum will hold her first presser at 09:00 EDT. PLN expects an unch. decision from NBP today. |
COP – COP finished the day off underperforming against USD, closing the session down -0.41% against USD. Our COP traders saw outflows from real money accounts and hedge funds. Davivienda Manufacturing PMI numbers came in under consensus forecasts (48.1 act. vs 50 exp.) and showcasing a lower figure than the previous print of 49.8. RMs and HFs are likely feeling risk-off pressures on the back of the poor PMI print and some hawkish interpretations of Banrep’s cautionary inflation comments yesterday. It is important to note that headlines from the middle east may further shift investor sentiment on USD positioning over the near term.
