COP – COP is the only Latam currency in the green in this morning session, despite some weakness in the early hours. From our local traders, the weakness was on the back of RM outflows. It has been quiet since. In local data, May activity metrics continue to show deceleration. We expect upcoming prints to continue showing deceleration in the short term, and keep our call for 2023 growth at 1.5%.
NY Open – Manifold
A variety of focuses overnight was rather refreshing. Bunds were responsible for the firmer FI tone, after hawkish Knot played down the likelihood of an ECB hike in September. Japan locals returned from a long weekend, with our eTrading desk seeing greater imbalance in Asia flows followed by leveraged JPY interest in the European morning session. Renewed interest in AUDNZD ahead of NZ CPI seems to be responsible for Antipodean divergence, despite dovish RBA minutes. There was decent divergence elsewhere, with ZAR and THB outperforming on local developments vs the likes of ILS and TRY.
Looking ahead, focus turns to the data. US retail sales will print at 08:30 EDT, where Citi Economics is below consensus forecasts for both headline and control group. CAD CPI prints simultaneously where base effects could weigh on YoY headline vs MoM. Our focus is on the 3m run rate of core measures. US earnings season is in full swing, with equity futures trading flat overnight. Finally, please see details below for two exclusive client calls today for ILS and MXN.