NY Open – Chop shop
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US yields retreat towards support levels, USD trades broadly flat as we head into key data today. Japan current account data overnight point to intervention around JPY2.1tn on Friday, totaling JPY5.6tn overall last week. USDJPY trades towards 158.45 at print. Germany ZEW survey expectations dropped, though an improvement in current account and looming US data kept EUR markets intact. US equity futures trade relatively flat on the day. More banks report shortly – SCHW, BAC, MS, STT, PNC. Our economists expect another miss in headline US retail sales (08:30 EDT), expecting a 0.4% MoM print. CAD CPI prints simultaneously and could be pivotal for July BoC pricing. Citi is slightly above cons. (2.8% YoY for headline vs 2.7%), but this could still keep our base case of a cut, watch how core prints. In EM, MXN is stabilizing and ZAR is reversing losses. BRL FGV CPI IPC-S releases shortly at 07:00 EDT. PLN core CPI prints at 08:00 EDT, markets will be more reactive to a miss. CLP markets witness local holidays |
COP – Today, COP underperformed peers amid a broadly stronger USD and offered LatAm complex. This morning, USDCOP opened around the 3960 level after trading lower on Friday and closing at 3922.95, correcting the move which had broken all daily moving averages. Locally, it was quiet with USDCOP price action being driven by the correction for the pair as well as by the stronger USD. Flow-wise, we saw inflows from offshore RM and HF names, as well as some outflows by local RM names.