NOTICIAS DURANTE LA NOCHE
* Las acciones, los rendimientos de los bonos, los cruces de JPY aumentan después de que el asesor económico de la Casa Blanca dice que las negociaciones sobre el acuerdo comercial de la fase uno entre EE. UU. Y China “se reducen a los trazos cortos”
. el IPC final del euro y el carril del BCE también programaron
* Banxico redujo las tasas en 25 pb anoche al 7,50%, dos miembros votaron por un recorte de 50 pb; USD / MXN retrocede 0.7% a 19.2707 (200dma)
* Malasia 3T GDP + 0.9% intertrimestral y 4.4% interanual, en línea con las estimaciones; mfg + 1.1% qoq, servicios + 2.1%
* Nikkei + 0.7%, EUR 10y IRS + 1bp a 0.08%, crudo Brent + 0.32% a $ 62.48
Cerrando la retaguardia: las economías de Alemania, Italia y Japón languidecieron en el 3T
El COP recupera su asimetría de alto beta negativa
El COP se depreció cerca de un 0,7% el jueves y, de nuevo, volvió colocarse por detrás del CLP como la divisa peor
comportada. Atrás quedan los días en los que el USDCOP registraba flujos entrantes (fusiones y adquisiciones) y
probaba soportes, y ahora las asimetrías de alto beta negativas resurgen. Las revueltas políticas y económicas en
algunos países vecinos parecen estar contaminando el apetito por el COP. En el plano económico, las noticias
positivas vinieron de las cifras del PIB en el 3T, que revelaron que el impulso de crecimiento sigue gozando de
buena salud al registrar un 3,3% a/a, a diferencia de la mayoría de países de la región. Con todo, el COP tiende a
cotizar más bien en base a fuerzas externas y, una vez más, vuelve a ignorar parte del respaldo de los
fundamentales. USDCOP 3.460 sigue siendo la primera línea en la que la demanda tendió a resurgir durante los
últimos tres meses con USDCOP 3.500 como el máximo histórico superior a dicha línea.
USDLATAM looking fragile.. CitiFX Technicals’ Tom Fitzpatrick looks at the nervousness in Latam as USDBRL could head to 5, USDCLP to 831 and USDMXN to 24… If the shoe FITZ:LATAM showing increased signs of stress. Could it be a domino into a risk off picture?
USDMXN: Looks like yet another multi-year consolidation before a topside breakout
Source: CitiFX Technicals
USDMXN price action is narrowing into a tighter and tighter range with supports around 19.00 and resistance around 20.00 We ultimately expect a topside break that will not only take us to new all-time highs but possibly as high as 24.00 to 25.00
USDBRL on the cusp on another major breakout?
Source: CitiFX Technicals
While USDBRL has so far continued to hold major resistance around 4.21-4.25 the setup is looking increasingly like that seen before the major break higher in December 2014 that saw USDBRL surge in the following 9 months. We believe we are on the cusp of a similar break that could see USDBRL above 5.00 in 2020.
USDCLP is leading the way
Source: CitiFX Technicals
USDCLP broke decisively through the major resistance are around 758.60-759.75 (Rising trend line resistance and all time high) this month suggesting the potential for accelerated gains. While the 800 level has already being reached further gains are likely. The upward sloping inverted head and shoulders targets at least 831, while the longer term pattern looks like a major double bottom (similar to that seen on USDBRL in late 2014 that could suggest a move above 900 on the currency pair.
GLOBAL
*White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said that negotiations over a phase one trade deal with China are down to the final stages
*News to give equity market a lift
*Hong Kong is now forecasting an economic contraction of 1.3% for 2019
*The campaign for the Dec. 12 U.K. election is stepping up a gear with the Labour Party pledging to nationalize BT Group Plc’s Openreach broadband unit
COLOMBIA
*Colombia Sept. Industrial Production +0.6% Y/y
*GeoPark Agrees to Buy Amerisur to Boost Presence in Colombia
*TBA: Cenbank Economist Survey
CO Thoughts: Protest on 21st – A Different Narrative From Chile
With protests blowing up in Chile, anxiety has been stirring up over Colombia’s national strike set to take place on the 21st – coinciding with discussion in Congress around the Financing Law. Called for by the left-wing opposition and ideologically inclined students, locals view the protests’ motivation closer to further deteriorating Duque’s governability than to the claimed motif of budget adjustment and pension system changes.
These manifestations are of no-surprise to authorities – differing from the uproar that started after the government of Chile decreed an increase in the price of the metro fair in Santiago de Chile. Since Day 1 in Colombia, the opposition has been on the streets bashing the policies of the Duque government. Senator Gustavo Petro, who came in second in the 2018 presidential election, has been a key figure behind all these social protests. The explicit objective of the #ColombiaHumana, Petro’s coalition, has always been to force the resignation of President Duque.
With 1.5 years in his mandate, Duque already suffers from a low approval rating (at 26% according to Invamer) and significant gridlocks in Congress for not adhering to the traditional exchange of congressional favors to advance legislation –making the passing of substantial reform proposals difficult. Besides, no bills other than the Financing Law have been drafted or sent to congress at this time.
Our Take
Colombia is no stranger to internal conflicts and should be able to deal with riots much faster than its peaceful neighbor, Chile. Because of the precarious security situation that Colombia has always been able to deal with, our sources from inside the government tell us that the degree of development of the Colombia intelligence apparatus has no comparison to the Chile one. We do not doubt that there will be vandalism, heavy traffic, and widespread violence. We think that the FX rate has depreciated ahead of the developments, with locals hedging to the risk of another “Chile-event” materializing. Once again, we think that the two stories are not comparable.
Best,
Daphne
