Comentario económico 12 de diciembre de 2023

COP – In COP we had inflows from local RM while RM offshore were better buyers of USD. This comes after the peso appreciated 0.2% against the U.S. dollar and consumer prices rose by a more-than-expected 10.15% in November, still far from the local central bank’s target. On a monthly basis, consumer prices accelerated by 0.47%, after slowing to an October 2021 low of 0.25% in the previous month.

 

NY Open – Here we go

The final major US market events of the year are here. Overnight, European rates rallied and USD gave back some of Monday’s gains amid a better risk tone. USDJPY is back on the 145 handle, on the view that the ultimate direction of BoJ travel is skewed to policy change. A combination of better European sentiment and softer UK wage growth has driven the rates rally, helping EURUSD flirt with 1.08 again into US CPI.

Citi Economics is in line with consensus, calling for unrounded 0.3%MoM core at 08:30 EST. Barring a large surprise, market expectations remain intact (and skewed dovish) into FOMC on Wednesday. Looking ahead, local data is due with BRL IPCA inflation, INR and UYU industrial production. MXN liquidity may be slightly affected by a local holiday. ARS awaits new economic measures due after the close.

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