NY Open – US inflation intrigue
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It was a quiet session into US CPI report, amid concerns for a stronger print. Major assets were rangebound, with little interest to buy the dip in US Treasuries. USD holds onto recent gains but USDJPY failed to break 149.50 overnight and amid a hawkish reminder from BoJ’s Himino. China sentiment was slightly buoyed by the PBoC beginning a previously announced liquidity tool for equity investors as we wait for Saturday’s MoF briefing. CPI undershoots in Norway and Hungary came against a more modest disinflation for CZK. At 08:30 EDT, Citi expects 0.25%MoM unrounded core CPI vs median forecast of 0.2%, with rounding risk to the downside but upside risks to the likes of OER. This print will be critical for FOMC rate cut expectations, dimmed by NFP. A rise in initial jobless claims may be overlooked given hurricane impact. As for Fedspeak, Cook on entrepreneurship at 09:15 EDT, Barkin fireside chat at 10:30 and then Williams at 11:00. Elsewhere, we keep an eye on ECB minutes. SNB’s Martin, and French 2025 budget presentation. |